With the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) scheduled to meet from June 4 to June 6, experts expect the central bank to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). Here are some insights into what experts and economists expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to do in shielding India in a world trade order that has broken all conventions.
1 / 5Soumya Kanti Ghosh | Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India said that India’s negotiation with the US is showing signs of progress. “I think the RBI has done its bit in maintaining liquidity. Now is the time to do the other small tweaks so as to keep the liquidity in surplus mode going forward,” he told CNCB-TV18.
2 / 5Samiran Chakraborty | Chakraborty, Chief Economist, Citi said that while GDP numbers are better than projected, he said that the MPC should note that part of the growth was driven by economic activity before the US introduced new sweeping tariffs across the world. “We have seen this trend in many countries. In Indian context too, net exports contributed very strongly to Q1,” he said.
3 / 5Abhishek Upadhyay | Upadhyay, Senior Economist at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, too, expects two rate cuts. While the inflation path could allow for more, he believes the RBI will likely adopt a cautious approach to setting the policy rate floor.
4 / 5Madan Sabnavis | Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Bank of Baroda, expects a 50 basis points cut in the repo rate, bringing it down to 5.5%, based on the assumption that inflation will hover around 4%.
5 / 5Pronab Sen | Sen, Chairman, Indian Statistical Institute, said, “The only problem is private capex. I think this is a situation where we should hold steady with our rate of liquidity growth and some cut in the repo would be called for.”